The Upside of Aging: More Investment Opportunities

Aging populations worldwide will create investment opportunities for institutional investors.

While the retirement industry worries that increasing longevity will affect retirement plans for many individuals—in what could be negative ways—research from PGIM suggests aging populations worldwide will create investment opportunities across real estate, health care, and technology.

The report, “A Silver Lining: The Investment Implications of an Aging World,” urges institutional investors to consider how a graying world could impact their portfolios. Global aging will reshape consumer spending for decades to come, according to the report. These changes will not only impact developed markets but also have a far-reaching effect on emerging markets, home to two-thirds of the world’s elderly. In particular, the report calls attention to evolving opportunities set within real estate and new opportunities within health care and technology.

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Real estate represents more than 40% of the gross assets of households ages 65 and older in major developed markets like the U.S. and the U.K., and aging populations will reshape demand in the sector, along three key investment themes:

  • From homes to condos: In the U.S., as an example, Baby Boomers are discovering the appeal of active urban lifestyles and creating demand for centrally located condos in cities like Raleigh, North Carolina; Nashville, Tennessee; Austin, Texas; and Atlanta.
  • Senior housing: Demand for senior housing in the U.S. alone will surge by 850,000 new units by 2030, a 75% increase from 2010, according to Senior Housing Analytics. Other nations, like the U.K., Japan, and China, are also straining to meet demand.
  • Eds and Meds: A silver tsunami brings with it a host of age-related diseases—and a growing industry to treat and cure them. Opportunities exist to invest in the real estate required by biotech startups, established medical companies, and research centers that typically cluster around universities.
NEXT: Opportunities in health care and technology

According to PGIM, health care and technology will grow substantially, driven by people older than 85 who spend four times as much on health care as those ages 45 to 64, leading to two key investment themes:

  • Pharmaceutical and biotech firms: Investors can find focused opportunities among venture capital firms whose operating companies target diseases such as dementia, stroke, cancer, Alzheimer’s, and Parkinson’s. Mid- and late-stage pharma-focused private equity also plays a role.
  • Silvertech: A new wave of businesses are emerging that create, distribute, and use technology-enabled medical services and devices to help seniors live more independently, including providing solutions for chronic care, enhancing mobility, and improving delivery of medical care.

Taimur Hyat, PGIM’s chief strategy officer, says, “For the first time in recorded history, the old will outnumber the young. Our report demonstrates the profound impact global aging will have on individuals, businesses, governments, and investors around the world. Long-term institutional investors should holistically evaluate the longevity megatrend and consider capitalizing on the opportunities it will bring.”

More than 30 PGIM and Prudential Financial experts gathered to debate the most attractive investment themes arising from the longevity megatrend, and to identify the likely winners and losers across different sectors in the economy. For more details and to download a copy of the report, visit www.PGIM.com/silverlining.

Lack of Documentation Trumps Verbal Designation

A deceased participant’s previous phone call to his employer’s benefit center asking to change his retirement account beneficiary cannot be relied on to determine where the money should go.

A thorny Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) dispute bouncing around the federal courts, known as Becker v. Mays-Williams, highlights the importance of precision in retirement plan documentation and communications—on the part of participants as well as service providers.  

The case reached the U.S. District Court for the Western District Of Washington (for a second time) on remand from the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which had reversed the district court’s previous summary judgment and demanded fresh consideration of the issues. Also important to note, the initial litigation started as an interpleader action initiated by the ERISA plans’ fiduciaries—rather than by one of the potential beneficiaries—seeking a determination as to the proper recipient of proceeds under two employee benefit plans run by Xerox, following the death of the participant.

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The complicated dispute underlying the case reaches back decades to when the participant, an employee for Xerox, first formally designated his wife as his beneficiary for the purposes of two ERISA plans, committing this to writing in plan documentation. After the couple later divorced, the man “moved to designate his son as his beneficiary over the telephone but did not sign and return beneficiary designation forms,” case documents show. Xerox went so far as to send the participant several rounds of beneficiary designation forms asking him to confirm his selection of his son as his beneficiary, “but he did not sign and return the forms.”

Later, after the participant died and asset distributions were requested, the plans’ fiduciaries felt they could not determine who deserved the assets he had accrued, and so they asked the courts for direction on who actually was due the money. During the bench trial, which finally took place in January of this year, the participant’s son presented evidence and witness testimony “to support his contention that [his father] either strictly or substantially complied with the term of the plans” in using a phone call to change his beneficiary but not returning the confirmatory paperwork.

Interestingly, the district court’s new ruling agrees with the participants’ son in that “the governing plan documents permit unmarried participants to change their beneficiary designations by telephone,” essentially because the plan documents do not name a specific or mandatory pathway for making a beneficiary change. According to case documents, “The plans … fail to provide any mechanism for how such a change may or should be made. Put another way, the governing plan documents are so equivocal that unmarried participants could change their beneficiaries by email, carrier pigeon, messages in a bottle, or any other form of communication.”

NEXT: Wrong for another reason 

While agreeing with the participant’s son that the plan has a “liberal mechanism” in place for changing one’s beneficiary, the district court’s decision actually sides with the ex-wife. “The problem with [the participant's son's] position is not the type of communication, but rather the lack of any clear and unequivocal communication,” the court explains. 

“First, he failed to establish that [his father] was the individual who called Xerox to change the beneficiary designation. It is undisputed that someone called Xerox, but he failed to sufficiently establish that his father was the caller. For example, he did not submit evidence to establish the phone number of the individual that called Xerox. Without additional supporting evidence, the court cannot assume that simply because calls were made by someone purporting to be the participant that those calls were actually made by the participant. In today’s world, we see the nearly ubiquitous use of security measures—such as codes and personal identifying information—to avoid fraudulent transactions.”

Based on the evidence presented at trial, the district court determined it is “unclear whether Xerox consistently employed such measures in this case. In fact, Xerox’s internal notes from the [most recent] contact in July 2007 show that the participant did not have a username or password to update his beneficiary online. With or without the use of identifying information over the phone, it is reasonable for Xerox to require written verification of the designation change to avoid fraudulent transactions.”

Following the phone call in question, Xerox sent several rounds of authorization forms to the participant, asking for validation of the beneficiary change requested in the phone call. “With regard to the first two times the forms were sent, the participant did not sign, date, and return the forms. As for the third time, the forms were returned unsigned and/or undated. Xerox subsequently sent two letters on February 1, 2011. The letters informed the participant that he failed to sign and/or date the authorization forms, and therefore his beneficiary designation could not be considered valid. The letters further informed him that if a new authorization form was not signed, dated, and returned, the beneficiary change would not be considered valid.”

Taking all this together, the district court ruled that “even if it was established that [the participant] at some point expressed a desire to change his beneficiary, the very fact that he allegedly called three times, was told to sign and return an authorization form three times, and failed to return a properly completed authorization form three times, is compelling evidence that he ultimately did not want to change his beneficiary. Indeed, under the circumstances presented in this case, it is just as reasonable—if not more reasonable—to conclude that he did not make the calls as it is to conclude that he did. It is also just as reasonable to infer that even if [the participant] was the caller, his failure to return a signed authorization form demonstrates that he did not, in fact, wish to change his beneficiary.”

Also important to the decision, case documents show, was the fact that the participants' divorce decree “did not change the designation of the beneficiary of the plans … The divorce decree was not a QDRO. Thus, any orders entered in the parties’ divorce proceedings do not in and of themselves remove [the ex-wife] as the designated beneficiary of the plans or otherwise demonstrate intent one way or the other.”

Additional background on the case as it was argued/decided in appellate court is here.

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