4% Withdrawal Rule Squeezed by Low Returns

Research from Morningstar finds that a 3.3% starting withdrawal rate is more sustainable given today’s low bond yields and high stock valuations.

“Determining the optimal amount to take out of a portfolio annually without prematurely depleting one’s assets is a question that vexes professional financial advisers and institutions nearly as much as it does individual investors,” according to the authors of a Morningstar research report.

They note in “The State of Retirement Income: Safe Withdrawal Rates” that a 4% withdrawal rate with annual inflation adjustments has been considered a safe withdrawal rate for years. It became the standard when financial planner Bill Bengen first demonstrated in 1994 that the 4% withdrawal rule had succeeded over most 30-year periods in modern market history.

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Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning; Jeffrey Ptak, chief ratings officer; and John Rekenthaler, director of research, at Morningstar, set out to determine if the 4% withdrawal rule was still relevant today. Using forward-looking estimates for investment performance and inflation, they found that a 50% stock/50% bond portfolio should support a starting fixed real withdrawal rate of about 3.3% per year, assuming fixed real withdrawals over a 30-year time horizon and a 90% probability of success. This is because bond yields are low and stock valuations are high.

The authors say their research should not be interpreted as recommending a withdrawal rate of 3.3%, because their assumptions are conservative and some adjustments could result in a meaningful increase in starting withdrawal rates.

For example, lowering the success rate to 85%—meaning there’s a 15% chance of running out of money in retirement—would result in retirees being able to take 3.7% of a balanced portfolio initially, and lowering the success rate to 80% would result in a 3.9% starting withdrawal rate. Delaying retirement could also bump up the starting withdrawal rate. If someone delays retirement by five years, a safe starting withdrawal amount would be 4.1%, according to the researchers’ other assumptions.

The researchers add that flexibility in spending patterns could also help retirees consume their portfolios more efficiently. For example, retirees could forego inflation adjustments to the initial withdrawal rate in the beginning years of retirement, or they could spend less when their portfolio balance has declined and more when it has increased. Annuitizing part of their portfolio could also increase retirees’ sustainable withdrawal rates.

“There is little question that current conditions demand greater forethought and planning than in the past, when lower valuations and loftier yields paved the way to higher future returns,” the authors of the study report say. “Given this, many of today’s retirees will have to be more resourceful to support their income needs.”

Workforce Evolution Intensifies Need for Quality Benefits

Research shows employees across all generations view insurance benefits offered at work as more valuable today than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

With the demand for talent increasingly outstripping supply, and a third of U.S. workers considering a job change in the next year, employees are paying more attention than ever to their financial security and their emotional and physical well-being in the workplace. In fact, surveys show shifting demographics, a diversifying workforce and new employee expectations are redefining the workplace benefits market beyond traditional health care insurance products.

In response, employers, too, are placing significantly more value on their nonmedical benefits programs as they look to address emerging and unmet needs. A new study conducted by LIMRA and Ernst & Young (EY) surveyed employers and workers, and interviewed brokers, benefits administrators and technology providers, to explore the different perspectives on the current and future state of the U.S. workforce benefits market.

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According to LIMRA and EY, there are now four generations firmly entrenched in the workplace: Baby Boomers, Generation Xers, Millennials and Generation Zers. At the same time, there are more contingent (i.e., freelance or gig) workers and increased racial and ethnic diversity among the labor force. Another evolving trend is the increased use of remote work. All in all, the U.S. workforce is more heterogeneous than ever before. With this comes a greater variety of benefit needs and preferences that evolve over time, LIMRA and EY say.

A significant number of employees across all generations view insurance benefits offered at work as more valuable today than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Millennials lead on this front, with 47% saying they are now more likely to look for employers that genuinely care about their well-being. The same is true of 33% of Gen X workers, 29% of Gen Z workers and 24% of Baby Boomers. All the generations agree that generous and responsive benefits are among the best ways employers can demonstrate such care.  

The LIMRA and EY survey data shows a majority of midsize (defined as having 100 to 999 employees) (66%) and large (1,000 or more employees) (69%) employers are prepared to offer more benefits in the next five years as they compete for talent, while 45% of small companies (fewer than 100 employees) indicate the same. Almost none say they will be offering fewer benefits.

“Our study finds three-quarters of employers (76%) believe their employees will expect a wider variety of benefits options in the future,” says Patrick Leary, corporate vice president and head of LIMRA workplace benefits. “Employers see benefits as a necessary tool to be able to compete in the war for talent. Despite 54% of employers reporting a decrease in revenue in the past year, the vast majority are not planning to cut back on benefits and almost half are considering offering a customized menu of benefits to help attract and retain talent.”

While benefits are important, many employees do not fully understand them, a challenge that will only become more difficult as benefit options expand and become more complex. Only a small number of employees don’t understand benefits such as medical/health insurance (2%), dental (3%), life insurance (4%) and retirement (5%), but the number increases when they were asked about disability insurance (13%), accident insurance (14%), critical illness insurance (18%) and hospital indemnity insurance (18%).

Employees say they are looking for clearer information and recommendations about the benefits best suited for them, and they cited multiple challenges to understanding what’s offered. The survey found the most common challenge was having insufficient time to make informed decision at 32%, and after that, 28% cite the complexity of benefits. Twenty-seven percent say ineffective communications prevented them from better understanding benefits.

Employers recognize the need to improve and enhance digital applications and services that support benefit implementation, education and enrollment. Up to 80% of employers across all business size segments believe technology will play a larger role in benefit carrier selection in five years, as they feel technology makes processes more efficient.

There are a significant number of digital services that employers don’t have but want, which LIMRA and EY say signals unmet needs and opportunities for digital support by providers. The most commonly cited of these services are same-day claim payments, at 46%; self-service and real-time quoting, at 34%; employee and employer mobile app access, at 29%; and decision support tools for employees, at 28%. Only 56% of employers said they were very satisfied with the technology provided with their insurance and benefits carriers today, and 57% believe they will be more reliant on insurance carrier technology in five years.

“Not surprisingly, COVID-19 has accelerated the transformation in workplace benefits. Not only did it heighten workers’ awareness of the value of life insurance, disability, leave and income protection products, [but] it also revealed a significant need for streamlined digital access to information and services that employees can access from wherever they work,” says Chris Morbelli, EY Americas life and group insurance transformation leader. “Ultimately, rich, personalized benefits that support increased work-life balance and meet the needs of a diverse, multigenerational workforce will be critical to attracting and retaining top talent in the future.”

The full research report can be viewed here.

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