On
a market value basis, public pension funded status increased by more than 4% in
2014, according to Milliman’s fourth annual Public Pension Funding Study of the
nation’s 100 largest public defined benefit (DB) plans.
Overall
reported funded ratios increased from 70.7% to 75%. However, after years of
strong asset performance, 2015 has been flat from an equity standpoint, and many
public plan sponsors have reduced return assumptions going forward, a trend
that reflects today’s market realities but also creates a steeper hill to climb
if these pensions are to reach full funding, Milliman says.
“Given
the early returns in 2015, the road ahead could be challenging for the 66% of
these plans that are less than 80% funded,” says Becky Sielman, author of
the Milliman Public Pension Funding Study. “Many public plans have become
more realistic about return assumptions in recent years—the median return
assumption has decreased from 8% in 2012 to 7.65% this year—which will further
steepen the climb to full funding, especially for the 10% of our study that are
currently less than 50% funded.”
The
study also found, for the first time, retired and inactive members outnumber
active members. And the accrued liability for those retirees overshadows the
accrued liability for employees by more than 40% in aggregate.
Prudential Outlook Highlights Key Demographic Trends
It’s not just the United States facing demographics-based investment market challenges, according to experts at Prudential Investment Management’s annual market outlook event.
Demographic trends as much as any other factor help explain
the relatively modest economic growth and low interest rates that have defined
the post-recession period in the United States, according to a diverse panel of
experts convened by Prudential Investment Management in New York.
The firm’s annual market outlook event brings together
some of the top investing minds from across the organization for a morning of
networking and panel discussions. Similar to last year, the conversation was dominated by
talk of interest rate trends, global demand for goods and services, and U.S.
Federal Reserve policy—but more than in the past simple demographic factors
were a major topic of conversation.
As explained by Ed Keon, managing director and portfolio manager for QMA, a business of Prudential Financial, the
advancing age of the asset-owning and actively investing population is changing
spending patterns and the demand for investment products (both stocks and fixed
income) in a huge way. This is clearly true in the U.S. with the ongoing
retirements of Baby Boomers, but it’s also true for developed economies
globally.
“Rates are being influenced by demographics more and more,”
Keon suggests. “People have been spending and investing and borrowing less.
They are less interested in debt in general and therefore short and long rates
are staying low for a while. A decade or longer, we believe.”
Like Keon, other Prudential Investment Management experts predicted the maximum
impact of Baby Boomer retirements is still ahead. Taken together, systemic and
cyclical trends indicate interest rates, inflation, and economic expansion are
all likely to remain below the typical levels of the past 70 years.
NEXT: Parsing short and long term trends
A related theme was summarized by David Hunt, CEO of
Prudential Investment Management, who said the firm is operating under the
assumption that global rates will remain “lower for longer,” given global
growth expectations and the ongoing actions of central banks around the
world—tightened Fed policy aside.
Take China, for example. Mike Lillard, managing
director and chief investment officer within Prudential Fixed Income, explains
the equity and bond markets in China have entered their “very challenging
teenage years.” The market is transitioning to adulthood, in other words,
towards a spending-based economy that will fill a wider role through a truly
global, market-making currency. Growth will inevitably slide as the transition
occurs, impacting global markets in a wide variety of ways. On top of this,
China is also facing very challenging demographic outlook, Lillard notes.
Despite some challenges, none of the experts brought in by
Prudential Investment Management sounded dire warnings about over-leveraging in markets, and all
seemed reasonably sure now is still a good time to invest, so long as one is
selective about risky assets. Keon explains the outlook by suggesting the
“reward for risk in the markets right now is relatively modest.”
Peter Clark, managing director of Jennison Associates (part
of the Prudential Financial brand), explains one response to the current
environment has been to “create more concentrated diversified portfolios.” It’s
a bit of an oxymoron, he admits, “but in our case this means having 40 stocks
in the global equity portfolio that we’re really confident about their quality,
out of a universe of more than 5,000 securities, versus a longer-term average
of 50 to 55 stocks in that specific portfolio.”
Very broadly speaking, Clark says his firm is paying
particular attention to the health care, consumer discretionary and information
technology equity sectors. These are sectors that carry some risk and
volatility but which have strong fundamentals for long term investors, from the Prudential perspective.
NEXT: Market cycles don’t die of old age
Prudential Investment Manager's experts generally sounded optimistic, and, as
one pointed out, “bull market cycles don’t just die of old age.” There are many
reasons for optimism when looking at global market factors, despite the
challenges listed above.
With the institutional retirement planning markets in mind, panelists said the messaging of diversification and keeping a
long-term outlook will best serve retirement plan investors in 2016. There will
undoubtedly be bouts of market volatility, and there are some worrying signs
from certain sectors, especially energy-dependent economies.
Another specific piece of advice from Lillard is to get
one's ducks in a row from the liquidity standpoint, “as liquidity is clearly going
to be tough given all the yield and demographic considerations we are
discussing today.” At a very high level, Lillard says liquidity, especially for
bonds, will remain much less predictable and dependable than it was pre-crisis.
“When it comes to building and maintaining portfolios, you
just can’t rely on the assumption that the necessary liquidity will be there
when you want to make your trade,” Lillard concludes. “You have to be cautious
and buy things you wouldn’t mind holding for a longer term, because you may end
up holding them much longer than you were anticipating. This works both ways,
it’s hard to get into a trade you may want and it’s harder to get out of one
you don’t want.”
Peter Hayes, head of global investment research for
Prudential Real Estate Inventors, adds that more defined benefit plan sponsors
can be expected to scoop up new real estate investments next year, “given the
ongoing search for yield.” He advocates for a “core income play in major
developed cities, especially the U.S.”