SURVEY SAYS: Expectations for a Recession

Last week, I asked NewsDash readers whether they think the U.S. is headed into a recession.

Despite my thought that “headed into” implied something imminent, quite a few responding readers pointed out that a recession is part of the economic cycle and bound to happen every so often.

That being said, responding readers were nearly evenly split about whether the U.S. economy is headed into a recession, with half believing it’s not and 46.5% believing it is. The rest had no opinion.

Readers who left comments provided reasons they think the U.S. is or is not headed into a recession. Some believe we are in for a stall or stagnation rather than a recession. A couple of readers noted that they are retiring very soon and are concerned about whether the markets will support that. Editor’s Choice goes to the reader who said: “This pressure to artificially manipulate the markets to delay them will only result in a much more severe, lengthy recession at some point. Kicking the can down the road just makes the problem worse when it appears.”

Thank you to all who participated in the survey!

Verbatim

God help us all that it isn’t worse than the last one. We are due at least a small recession, but I think it will be huge and made worse because of reactionary moves that will be taken.

I don’t know the technical requirements to call a downturn in the market a recession, but I do think the bubble will burst, but hopefully nothing too serious as I hope to retire in the next 2 years!

Of course. It’s always a matter of when, not if. That said, it’s likely within the next 18 months. The world economy is slowing, despite significant steps in the U.S. and other countries. There are no indicators to suggest the underlying weakness is being resolved, and there are few measures left in many countries that will allow them to prop up their economies. The U.S. is in a much better place than most, with interest rates still over 1.5% and most consumers feeling comfortable, but these suggest the recession won’t hit the U.S. as hard as other nations, not that the U.S. won’t enter a recession at all.

Sadly, the talk about recession might be in part fueled by politics.

All economic factors point to a recession in the next three to six months and the Trump-imposed tariffs will add fuel to the fire.

Of course, eventually. Can the Fed hold it off for a bit? That is the question.

It’s the nature of economics that we are always headed for the next recession. It is more of a “when” question than an “if” question. I’m more concerned about if we have a recession, just how bad will it be and will my plan be ready to weather the storm!

We are always headed into a recession…but how fast are we driving toward it? The yield curve doesn’t concern me as much as the Tweeter-in-Chief.

If only we had a president who understood economics.

I am confident it will happen and worry about how low and how long it will last. Our metropolitan already has an affordable housing shortage and I worry greatly what will happen when that population grows with fewer resources to provide support.

The economic cycle is real, so we will have recessions from time to time. Your real question is can we predict the next recession.

Recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle and are okay from time to time. This pressure to artificially manipulate the markets to delay them will only result in a much more severe, lengthy recession at some point. Kicking the can down the road just makes the problem worse when it appears.

It seems that we are holding our own. No excessive growth but no recession either.

The decisions being made at the national level almost guarantee it.

I think the new paradigm is much lower, but sustainable growth. This lower growth is like insulin regulating the economy and avoiding the “sugar highs”.

Quit listening to the biased media!

Rampant deficit spending; economic policies geared toward the top 1% rather than broad based prosperity; unfunded spending on recovery from an increasing number of natural disasters due to climate change…

Trade wars are never won – they leave both sides worse off than before. Look at history.

It depends on an equitable trade deal with China. If one is not reached the two big economic engines will stall? It benefits both China and the USA to resolve, with China either opening up markets or foregoing the partnership route on all investments.

Not yet. But the Fed needs to stop cutting interest rates so they will have some room to move when the recession does come – and it will. For now, inflation is relatively tame, and the labor participation rate is healthy. Our biggest problem is the federal debt, which neither side seems interested in fixing.

Only one third of economists think it is coming.

It’s been a good run.

Yes, eventually.

It’s coming. Just a matter of when.

I think there’s a sense of panic reporting, and 2008 isn’t that far in the rear-view mirror. The economy is good, wages are lagging for the working-class and health care rates are rising. Do the math on where one’s money is spent: taxes and insurance

Yes, but I wouldn’t try to guess when

All the popular media over reacted and wanted to claim the yield curve inverted and that means a recession is coming. The yield curve changed for reasons way different than traditional past circumstances. Shame on the media for “yelling fire in a crowded theatre.”

The probability that we will never have another recession is zero – we will undoubtedly have another recession at some point in the future. The question is only when. And I’m hoping before the next election, for obvious reasons.

I think that we’re heading for a period of stagnation, not recession.

We may be headed for a slow-down.

I don’t believe the U.S. is headed into recession in the next 12 to 18 months.

With a re-emphasis on American workers and their income, and the current administration wanting to protect that, we should be stable.

But will look good doing it!

But I hope not since I am planning to retire in 2021!

Recessions, like death and taxes, will come, but I think we have a strong economy for now.