Unemployed Older Workers May Not Be Able to Find New Jobs

Retirement Equity Lab says nearly 3 million older workers, those between the ages of 55 and 70, have left the labor force since March.

Over half of unemployed older workers are at risk of involuntary retirement, according to The New School’s Retirement Equity Lab. Since March, 2.9 million older workers, those between the ages of 55 and 70, have left the labor force, and many face the risk of having to retire involuntarily due to increased health risks coupled with decreased job prospects.

This exit from the labor force is 50% higher than the 1.9 million older workers who left the labor force in the first three months after the Great Recession started in 2007.

Retirement Equity Lab expects another 1.1 million older workers will leave the labor force in the next three months. Should this happen, it will increase old-age poverty and exacerbate the recession, according to Retirement Equity Lab.

Between March and June of this year, 7% of those between the ages of 55 and 70 left the workforce, compared with 4.8% of those between the ages of 18 and 54. By comparison, in the first three months after the Great Recession, 4.7% of older workers left the workforce, while only 3.2% of those under the age of 55 exited.

Of the 1.3 million older workers who were unemployed in March, 500,000 gave up looking by June and left the labor force, the study found. During this period, 38% of older unemployed workers left the labor force, compared with 32% of younger unemployed workers.

“The longer the economy takes to recover, the more likely it is older workers will give up actively looking for work,” according to Retirement Equity Lab. “There is wide consensus among economists that we will not return to pre-recession levels of employment and output.”

The organization also says that, under normal economic conditions, older workers who are laid off are unlikely to re-enter the job market. Between 2008 and 2014, at least 52% of retirees over 55 lost their job involuntarily, either through job loss or a deterioration in health. Even if they look for a new job, it takes them twice as long as younger workers to find work, and, if they do find a job, their wages are typically 23% to 41% lower than their previous earnings.

Occupations hardest hit by widespread shutdowns, including manufacturing and low-paying service jobs, employ a greater share of older nonwhite and female workers. High-paying service jobs that disproportionately employ older white men did not shut down because their workers often could continue working from home. As a result, older nonwhite workers and older women experienced higher levels of job loss. Older white workers were the least affected by job loss.

Retirement Equity Lab says those who retire early take Social Security benefits early, which means the benefit is lower than if they had waited. They also begin drawing down their retirement savings early.

To help these workers, Retirement Equity Lab says the government should extend and increase unemployment benefits and reinstate the 10% penalty fee for early withdrawals from tax-advantaged retirement accounts that was removed by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The lab also says the government should lower Medicare eligibility to age 50, expand Social Security and create a Federal Older Workers Bureau that would formulate standards and policies to promote the welfare of older workers and advance opportunities for profitable employment for them.

Similarly, a survey by NerdWallet from before the onset of the pandemic found that more than one third of retirees said it wasn’t their personal choice to leave the workforce. Eighteen percent left because of health-related matters, and 9% left because they simply could not find another job.

For those who are laid off and looking for health insurance options, those with fewer anticipated health care needs or those who have significant savings in a health savings account (HSA) may feel comfortable exploring the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace or other increasingly popular concierge or direct-care services. Others with chronic conditions that require frequent care or who need more comprehensive coverage will want to consider continuing their employer-sponsored coverage under COBRA [Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act], experts say.

Finally, those who are laid off should see if there is a way for them to delay taking Social Security benefits until age 70, when their benefit will be higher, according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

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Musician Union Pension Benefit Cut Likely to Be Denied

The financial hardship faced by the American Federation of Musicians and Employers’ Pension Fund is characteristic of a broader problem—one that Congress is divided on how to address.

Back in December, the U.S. Treasury Department received an application from the American Federation of Musicians and Employers’ Pension Fund (AFM-EPF) to suspend benefits, based on authorities granted under the Multiemployer Pension Reform Act of 2014 (MPRA).

The plan’s as-yet pending application is among more than 30 filed in the past several years by similar multiemployer plans. So far, the applications have mainly covered workers in transportation and the building trades, but upward of 120 plans in a number of industries are considered “critical and declining.” Under the MPRA, this status means they are expected to run out of money within 20 years. Such plans may suspend benefits if that would prevent outright insolvency, subject to approval by the U.S. Treasury.

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In January, the AFM-EPF told PLANSPONSOR that more than 20,000 musicians could see benefit reductions under its plan. But they said the plan was necessary and that it represents the best possible outcome for members. The vast majority face benefits reductions ranging from 0% to 20%, while fewer than 1,000 younger people could see reductions in the range of 20% to 40%.

In cases like this, the U.S. Treasury must approve or deny the benefit reduction plan after conferring with the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). Once approved, the suspension proposal goes to the plan’s participants and beneficiaries for a final vote.

No Go for AFM-EPF Reduction Plan

Based on new communications between the Treasury and AFM-EPF, it now appears that the Treasury staff will recommend that the Treasury secretary deny the AFM-EPF’s benefits reduction plan. In a new statement to PLANSPONSOR, the fund says it has been informed that the Treasury staff disagrees with two of the actuarial assumptions used in its application. On this basis, Treasury staff will apparently recommend that the Secretary of the Treasury deny the application.

“The trustees strongly disagree with Treasury staff’s position on the two assumptions, and the plan’s actuaries stand firmly by all of the assumptions used in the application,” the AFM-EPF writes. Of interest to the broader retirement planning audience is that the actuary in this case is Milliman.

“Even more to the point,” the statement continues, “Treasury staff is recommending denial despite the fact that that the AFM-EPF demonstrated the proposed benefit reduction would prevent the plan from running out of money even if the plan used the assumptions that Treasury staff preferred.”

Disappointed with this development, the AFM-EPF trustees have sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, conveying the reasons for their disagreement with Treasury staff and asking him to overrule the expected recommendation and not deny the application.

“Too much is at stake for this to be the basis of a denial,” the letter states. “Over 50,000 musicians across the country rely upon their pension benefits as an important part of their retirement security. These participants are in dire need of your support. Plan insolvency would cause many of these participants to have their benefits reduced to the amount insured by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, well below the level of current benefits enjoyed by the vast majority.”

This line helps to explain why members of the musician union pension backed the proposal. Union members’ votes in favor of benefit reductions are cast based on a simple economic analysis: The guaranteed monthly benefit limit that will be paid out by the PBGC—which insures both union and single-employer corporate pensions—is about $36 per month per year of service, or about $13,000 annually with 30 years of service. This amount is far less than the PBGC single-employer guarantee of about $65,000, and it is often also far less than the level of the benefit to be paid after a proposed reduction—as in this case. And, unlike the single-employer guarantee, the multiemployer guarantee is not adjusted for inflation.

Congress Called Upon to Act

As the Treasury weighs this case, a debate continues to simmer in Congress about how to help stressed union pensions. Two influential Republican senators have recently published a white paper outlining a proposed plan to address the multiemployer pension funding crisis. The senators, Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Senate HELP [Health, Education, Labor and Pensions] Committee Chairman Lamar Alexander, R-Tennessee, say their proposal represents a realistic and balanced approach to the issue. In simple terms, to help the “sickest plans” recover their financial footing, the proposal creates a special partition option for multiemployer plans. The senators say this is not a new concept. Rather, the proposal would expand on the PBGC’s existing authority to enact plan partitions in special circumstances. 

According to the senators, partitioning permits employers to maintain a financially healthy multiemployer plan by carving out pension benefit liabilities owed to participants who have been “orphaned” by employers who have exited the plan without paying their full share of those liabilities. They argue that removing orphan liabilities allows the original plan to continue to provide benefits in a self-sustaining manner by funding benefits with contributions from current participating employers. In effect, partitioning creates a “healthy pension” that continues to meet all of its obligations to retirees, the senators say, and a separate “sick pension” that requires attention and assistance from the PBGC.

The Senate Republicans’ proposal differs in important respects from the approach taken by the Butch Lewis Act, which was advanced on a party-line vote by the House Ways and Means Committee last year. This approach, favored by House Democrats, would provide funds for 30-year loans and new financial assistance, in the form of grants, to financially troubled multiemployer pension plans. According to the text of the legislation, the program is designed to “operate primarily over the next 30 years.”

During the committee debate last year, Democrats, led by Chairman Richard Neal of Massachusetts, generally voiced strong support for the act. They suggest that the dire financial situation faced by some multiemployer pension systems is chiefly due to the Great Recession and long-lasting market challenges that have particularly harmed manufacturing and other blue-collar industries. They say economic conditions over the past two decades have forced many employers that offer these pensions to go insolvent themselves, which, in turn, left the multiemployer pension plans with fewer and more financially stressed contributing employers.

House Republicans, on the other hand, led by Ranking Member Kevin Brady of Texas, are quick to cite their worries about ongoing mismanagement and even maleficence on the part of union leaders and pension trustees. They argue a loan program will do nothing to solve the underlying problems that weakened many of the plans to begin with, and they commonly use the term “bailout” to describe the program.

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