State-Facilitated Retirement Plans Hit $1B in Assets as Programs Continue to Launch

19 states have initiated programs to help workers prepare for retirement, and early adopters California, Oregon and Illinois account for most of the accumulated assets so far.

State-facilitated retirement savings programs have accumulated more than $1 billion in assets, as of July 31, according to data collected by the Center for Retirement Initiatives at Georgetown University.

The assets are held by eight of the 19 state programs, with the largest share in the programs run by California, Oregon and Illinois, each of which launched in 2018 or earlier, the center reports. There are also two city-sponsored programs in the U.S.

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As of June 20, nine of the 19 state programs—including auto-IRA programs in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Oregon and Virginia and programs with different structures in Massachusetts and Washington state—are open to all eligible employers and workers in those states. The remaining 10 are in various stages of their development.

As the number of programs has grown across the country and programs have become more well established in early-adopter states, the programs’ asset growth is accelerating.

“It took more than three years to hit $500 million in program assets, but only 13 months for programs to cross the $1 billion mark,” said Angela Antonelli, executive director of the CRI, in an emailed response to questions. 

Antonelli said the programs, which give private-sector employees access to tax-deferred retirement savings in their workplace, even if their employer does not sponsor a plan, “can be life changing.”

“Program participants report a greater sense of financial security, so even modest levels of savings in state programs likely contribute to improved financial wellness,” Antonelli wrote.

Research published this year has shown that in states that have made it mandatory for businesses to either utilize the state-run plan or offer an employer-sponsored plan, more employers are offering their own retirement plans, giving a wider swath of employees a chance to save for the future.

Additional research by the Pew Charitable Trusts found that state-facilitated retirement savings plans for private sector workers that do not have workplace plans may have a positive effect on the creation and retention of private plans.

As the largest state-sponsored plans continue to drive the lion’s share of asset growth in these programs, smaller state programs are coming online and also seeking ways to control costs, including partnerships such as the one announced this week by Maine and Colorado.

Antonelli says a partnership can also “significantly reduce the amount of time from adoption to launch. Maine will now be able to move to a pilot by this October and a program launch in January 2024, and it will move even more quickly for other states entering such partnerships in the future, reducing time from 18 to 24 months to a matter of just a few months.”

PBGC Looks to Modernize Actuarial Assumptions

The proposal would change mortality tables and interest rate calculations.

The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation has published proposed changes to the interest rates, mortality tables and administrative expenses used to calculate “the present value of benefits for a single-employer pension plan ending in a distress or involuntary termination.”

The proposal explains that the PBGC tries to keep its actuarial assumptions in line with the assumptions and pricing used by private sector insurers. The proposal would update the PBGC’s mortality table to be more current, update interest rate assumptions to better reflect current market conditions and simplify the administrative expense calculation.

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The PBGC is seeking public comment on the proposals. The comment period will close 60 days after the proposal is entered into the Federal Register.

 

Mortality Calculations

Bruce Cadenhead, a partner in and the global chief actuary in wealth at Mercer, says the PBGC is currently using a mortality table based on data from 1994 and is projecting into the future using a scale that is also outdated.

Under the proposal, the PBGC would update the table to one relying on data from 2012 and using “generational mortality improvement.” A generational improvement is a “more modern structure,” Cadenhead explains, which projects mortality based on the year the participant was born. The PBGC currently uses “static projection,” an “approximation of a generational table” which is less accurate because it projects mortality into the future using a fixed rate of improvement.

Cadenhead says a generational table is “more complex from a calculation standard,” because it means each participant must be calculated separately using a variable rate of mortality improvement from year to year, “but that’s become pretty standard.”

John Lowell, a partner in retirement and benefits consultant October Three, says the PBGC has not updated its mortality rules in almost 30 years. “Mortality had been based on a 1994 mortality table, while many tables have been published since then,” Lowell says, adding that the proposal would make the PBGC methods “more current.”

 

Interest Assumptions

Interest rates are the “most significant assumption” in calculating present value for pension funding, according to Cadenhead. Under current regulations, the PBGC surveys insurers on their pricing and uses the results in the quarter after the rate is calculated. As a result, the PBGC interest rate assumption can be “six months out of date,” and “sometimes this aligns well with the current market, and sometimes it doesn’t,” Cadenhead says.

Cadenhead explains that the rates used by insurers are closely related to yields on corporate and Treasury bonds such that they can be used instead of insurer rates in the valuing of pension assets. Better yet, those rates are available sooner and can be used to update interest assumptions monthly, rather than quarterly.

By taking a weighted average of corporate and Treasury bonds, modified with an “adjustment factor,” the PBGC can obtain a figure that closely approximates the data it would have obtained from its surveys, but in a timelier fashion. That “adjustment factor” will be obtained from the insurer surveys used under the current regulations, Cadenhead says, because those surveys are still useful in measuring the gap between the insurers’ assumptions and actual bond yields.

Lowell adds that since interest assumptions were last updated, “technology has made the use of full yield curves possible, which are more precise and far more practical.”

Administrative Expenses

When calculating present value, the PBGC also accounts for the administrative expenses involved if it had to take over a terminated plan. Currently, the PBGC uses a two-step calculation which accounts for the number of participants and the total plan assets. To simplify this process, it will instead only consider the number of participants. The administrative expense formula under the proposal would be $400 per participant for the first 200 participants and $250 for every additional participant.

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