Understanding the Market Cycle Is Important to Retirement Plan Investors

It is inevitable that markets will go up and down; lessons about downturns should always be a part of participant education.

Among one of the most overwhelming effects of the COVID-19 outbreak is the switch from the record-long bull market trend to the current bear market.

Bear markets occur when securities drop 20% or more from its peak and have lasted for a period of two months or more. This is widely confused with market corrections, which are short-term drops where large stock indexes, like the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones industrial Average, fall more than 10%, but less than 20%.

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The market downturn has been monumental for most investors, given its speed and rate, industry experts say. According to a Fidelity report, shock and uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus outbreak is “both a supply and demand shock that adds a significant near-term headwind to global growth.” This ambiguity turns into pessimism, which further grows the distrust in the market. While investors were once encouraged to buy stocks and spend, now many— especially small business employees—are experiencing layoffs and being discouraged from adding changes to their investments, all in a matter of weeks.

“This is an almost unprecedented decline in stocks,” states Sean Naughton, senior vice president of U.S. Equities for RBC Wealth Management. “The only other period that is comparable to these times are Black Monday in the 1980s, and the Great Depression in 1929.”

Comparing previous market downturns to the current market climate is hard to do. Markets are inherently volatile, and downturns will always be inevitable, says Dave Stinnett, head of the Strategic Retirement Consulting Group at Vanguard, but no two can be the same. “We do expect markets to reach this point from time to time. For example, global equity markets have experienced eight bear markets over the last 40 years, or one roughly every five years.”

According to Charles Schwab, on average, bear markets will roughly last for 17 months—much shorter than the recent bull market’s 11-year long tenure. This is why industry experts discourage investors from making large, rash decisions in their investments during this time.

The swings in the market are surely enough to make short- and long-term investors uneasy. Younger investors do have time on their side, as the declines in their investments and stocks will likely recover long before their retirement date, Naughton says. “Historically, markets will always recover. For those earlier in their career, who have 10, 20, 30 years to go, there isn’t much risk,” he notes.

Short-term investors—those nearing retirement within five years or less—may be much more unnerved. Now is the time to speak to financial advisers, notes Anthony Saglimbene, global market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. “If there are some changes that you may want to make, then maybe you should wait until the market is calmer,” he says. “Now is the time to talk to your adviser, not to act.”

While purchasing cheaper stocks during a bear market can increase an investor’s wealth if the market regains, it’s a large risk, considering how stocks can continue to fall. Investors cannot time a bear market, so it’s hard to predict its length of time. For both types of investors, the suggestions are clear: Avoid implementing large changes to investments. Long-term investors with spare cash—and not from savings—can choose to invest in cheaper stocks, but short-term investors are encouraged to stay put. Either way, investors should not look at adding large alterations. “This is not the time to make big changes,” Saglimbene says. “Time and time again, if they’re making negative decisions, they’ll miss the rally and that can make long-term damages on portfolios.”

Pulling money out of savings accounts is a move made by many short-term investors who are worried about losing even more than what they’ve already lost. Stinnett says investors should think twice before leaving a down market, explaining that not only could they potentially miss out on the potential recovery, but will also have to make the call on when is the best time to get back in.

“Research proves that people vastly overrate their ability to get back into the market,” he adds. In fact, Stinnett argues it’s much more crucial for investors to remain disciplined in their approach and maintain a long-term perspective. “It’s much easier to recover if you stay the course than if you sell low and try to get back in later,” he points out.

Saglimbene foresees a volatile future, especially given the amount of uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. “It’s very difficult for investors to try to time this market with all this uncertainty, but over time the markets will recover,” he says. “When you see the virus numbers contract and slow down, then investors can make better decisions about how to navigate this environment.”

Securing Retirement for Female Workers

Faced with a list of priorities and lack of knowledge, women are often the ones who get off course with retirement security.

Similar to the gender pay gap, women are on an uneven playing field when it comes to retirement and Social Security.

Studies have shown that women are more likely than men to make bad decisions when it comes to Social Security or believe that the system will provide them with less income than expected. A Morningstar study about women and investing found women aren’t wrong to believe that, either: On average, women age 65 years and older receive an annual Social Security benefit of $14,353; compared with $18,041 for their male counterparts.

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“For a lot of women on the cusp of retirement, they know the concept of not wanting to run out of money, but they don’t know what actions to take,” says Marcia Mantell, a retirement business consultant and owner of Mantell Retirement Consulting. Mantell’s book, “What’s the Deal with…Retirement Planning for Women?” argues women are underserved when it comes to knowledge about money and retirement planning.

She says she believes this insecurity stems from traditional arrangements associated with Baby Boomers: Men would handle the finances, while women would handle the household. And while society has since shifted toward uplifting and encouraging female workers to handle their own finances, many older women are still stuck. For older women who do have a retirement account, more than half will claim Social Security before the full retirement age, lose money and have less in their accounts than men, but they are still likely to outlive men. Morningstar reported in its study that 65-year old women in 2019 are expected to live an average of 21.5 additional years, while a man of that same age will live another 19.1 years.

“Fifty-six percent of women claim their Social Security before full retirement age, and 51% of men do so. When husbands draw it early, and die first, the wife does get to step into his shoes and get his benefit instead of her lower one,” Mantell explains. “But now she’s going into her 80s and beyond—so she’ll need more money in modern society.”

Older working women don’t have to be stuck when it comes to their financial wellness. Employers are in the prime position to help employees make decisions now for Social Security and Medicare, Mantell says.

“They send out information and while that’s nice, it’s only a start. Employers need to hire general education members and encourage their workers to ask questions. It’s not enough to have webinar on demand, because then employees can’t ask,” she emphasizes.

A Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies (TCRS) report about women’s retirement insecurity suggests five fundamentals for women to adopt and for employers to push. It sounds easy, but saving early and habitually is one of the best routes to retirement readiness, according to the report. Only 38% of female workers globally can say they are regularly saving. Additionally, developing a written retirement strategy; creating a backup plan for unforeseeable events, whether from a professional or personal standing; adopting a healthy wellness lifestyle; and seeking financial literacy can help women achieve financial wellness.

“It is imperative that women take greater control over their financial situation, but it must be recognized that they face formidable headwinds that can limit their ability to save, such as lower incomes and less access to employer-sponsored retirement benefits,” says Catherine Collinson, CEO and president of Transamerica Institute and TCRS, in the report. “In order to achieve success, these structural inequalities must be addressed by a new social contract and the modernization of retirement systems around the world.”

Checking off these marks is easier said than done for many women, who are usually balancing several other priorities—such as a career and family— and don’t have dispensable time to catch up on their finances. “Women sometimes don’t have the time in their day,” Mantell points out. “Some need a good one, to two, hours a day to understand retirement and finances.”

This is the reason it’s up to employers to implement educational strategies throughout the workday, whether it’s a lunch hour seminar or a day dedicated to financial wellness, for women—both older and younger—to ask questions. “We don’t want another 50 years of uncertain retirement with women,” Mantell states. “Employers need to implement strong messaging to get their workers to start saving, and sending an info package isn’t enough.”

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