Portfolio Reviews Remain Important Amid Low Volatility

While few if any investing professionals advocate for aggressive market timing, it is natural to ask the question of when the bull markets could cool—and how investors might respond now to address potentially uncompensated risk in their portfolios.

A new analysis published by Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist for LPL Financial, shows that 2017 “continues to break records for equity market performance, as the S&P [Standard & Poor’s] 500 Index makes new highs amid historically low volatility.”

As Detrick spells out, the broad equity market index’s average daily change on an absolute basis so far this year has been only 0.30%, “the smallest since 1965.”

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“The index has closed lower [than] 1% or more only four times—the fewest for a full year since 1964,” Detrick says. “I feel like a broken record, but so many times when I’m talking about 2017, I usually say ‘the last time since 1964, 1965 or 1995 when making comparisons with 2017. Those three years are widely considered the least volatile years ever, and 2017 is right there with them trying to make the medal stand.”

While few if any investing professionals advocate for aggressive market timing, it is natural to ask the question of when the bull markets could cool—and how investors might respond now to address potentially uncompensated risk in their portfolios, while asset valuations are strong. In response, as Detrick and others observe, retirement investors may want to reconsider their investing time frame and their ability to stomach a potential downturn. Advisers and plan sponsors might also take the step of reiterating that participants must understand that lifecycle investing comes with both ups and downs—and that rashly pulling money out of falling markets is rarely a good move over the long run.

“One other amazing streak may take place at Monday’s close,” Detrick says. “The S&P 500, should it return at least -2.99%, will officially have gone 242 trading days—about 11.5 months—without a 3% correction, topping the record of 241 days set in 1995. If we jinx it and the S&P 500 falls 3%, we apologize, … but the last time the [index] closed down more than 3% the day after making a new all-time high was in November 1991, and [it] has made 474 new highs since then without a 3% drop the following day.”

Americans’ Debt Could Be a Serious Impediment to Retirement Savings

People are carrying an average debt load of $140,113, GoBankingRates.com found in a survey.

Americans carry an average debt load of $140,113, GoBankingRates.com found in a survey. Yet, 64% of Americans say they have more saved than they have as revolving debt on their credit card.

GoBankingRates.com cautions that this should be taken in context, as an earlier survey the website conducted found that over half of Americans have less than $1,000 in their savings account.

Bruce McClary, vice president of communications for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, says he is leery of GoBankingRates’ latest findings. “I would be surprised that more Americans are indicating that their savings exceed their revolving charge balances. We have found, through our own surveys and internal data, that a growing portion of the population is carrying larger credit card balances while not making progress with their savings.”

Neal Frankle, founder of credit repair website Credit Pilgrim, adds that if a person with $1,000 or less in his savings account were to miss a paycheck or face an unexpected expense, his debt would immediately surpass his savings. In his blog on GoBankingRates.com earlier this year, Frankle warned that debt could be a serious burden to those in retirement, potentially forcing many people to re-enter the work force.

The survey found that the most common form of debt people carry is a mortgage, reported by 65% of respondents, whose balance, on average, is between $150,000 and $200,000. Credit card debt is the second most common debt, reported by 50% of respondents, who said their balances are less than $500. Auto loans are the third most common, reported by 32% of respondents, who say their balances are less than $1,000.

Student loan debt is the fourth most common debt, reported by 25% of respondents, who also say their student loan balances average less than $1,000.

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