Social Security Burdens Fall on Younger Workers

As unemployment rises and employees retire sooner, experts say Social Security will be exhausted faster than predicted.

When Social Security was designed during the Great Depression, there were more than 45 employees to fund benefits for one retiree. There were few beneficiaries and many employees, but, in 2020, that ratio has dropped to roughly three to one.

Doubts in the long-term viability of Social Security have risen in past years, long before COVID-19 spun the economy into an unprecedented downturn. Pre-pandemic, the Social Security Trustees Report showed the combined asset reserves of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASI and DI) are projected to be depleted in 2035, with 79% of benefits payable. Now, as unemployment numbers rise to all-time highs and more employees are retiring sooner, experts say Social Security will be exhausted at a quicker pace.

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“Think about the loss of income to fund Social Security,” says Philip Palumbo, founder, CEO and chief investment officer (CIO) for Palumbo Wealth Management. “You’ve seen a lot of people retire sooner than they were before, which also takes people offline in terms of earned income, which takes away from Social Security systems.”

According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a tool from the University of Pennsylvania that measures the economic impact of national budget policies, Social Security is expected to run out of reserves two to four years earlier than its last projection. Todd Soltow, co-founder of Frontier Wealth Management, says he believes fewer interest earnings and less purchasing power caused by the pandemic have led to this shorter timeline. A reduction by the Federal Reserve in current interest rates will directly lower the amount of earnings on existing reserves, he says, and a reduced demand for consumer goods and services may disturb the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is used to calculate annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) added to Social Security benefits, Soltow explains, and, therefore, in theory, can have a net zero effect on the purchasing power of Social Security benefits.

“In the end, a more rapid depletion of the reserves, less interest earnings and possibly less purchasing power all add up to the fact that retirees will have less income to fund their living expenses unless these deficiencies are corrected,” he states.

Younger employees, those currently battling personal and student loan debt, mortgage payments and high rent and caring for aging parents, will feel these outcomes at a significant level. “More than likely, a big part of the fix will include higher taxes and less benefits,” Soltow adds. “The cost of these fixes will undoubtably be shouldered by both the younger and next generation workforces.”

The effects of the coronavirus have disrupted regular patterns of work and wages for those in the Millennial and Generation Z age group, says Karen McIntyre, a fiduciary investment adviser at Unified Trust. As these employees leave the workforce due to furloughs and layoffs, they miss out on top earning years and thus forfeit their highest future benefits. “If we are entering into a period of prolonged recession, we could see a generation of stunted workers unable to grow their income in a meaningful way to ensure maximum benefits at retirement age,” McIntyre says.

Chris Barnes, chief product officer and managing director at Escalent, shares a similar thought, adding that these losses disproportionately impact younger non-white workers and women. With COVID-19, Black and brown employees have faced excessive challenges in and out of the workforce. Barnes says that, for these employees, a loss in Social Security benefits only expands inequities. “These workers are significantly at risk in a situation like this, so you’re disrupting their income now and career path later, just as people are entering into more advanced careers. That’s a huge short circuiting,” he says.

Barnes recommends employers speak to their employees about the challenges they foresee, especially as many are unaware of what benefits they would receive during retirement. A paper by the Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center found current employees have little to no understanding of what their retirement benefits would look like. Forty-nine percent said they had no knowledge on expectations for future benefit amounts. Yet, participants still assume some form of government assistance will aid them throughout retirement, as an Escalent survey said 47% cite Social Security as their top source of retirement income.

Planning for the future and taking advantage of benefits available now, whether that’s employer contributions or health savings account (HSAs), will boost savings in the long-term, says Nancy DeRusso, senior vice president at Ayco. This minimizes trade-offs when it comes to retirement and adds more savings options—two essential factors to consider for younger employees who have a long wait until retirement, she says. “With the benefit of time, you have a little more opportunity to plan for things that are uncertain or dips and curves that you may not be able to plan for,” she adds. “The lack of predictability really underscores the importance of getting started early and making the most of the benefits employers provide.”

The unpredictable nature of the pandemic and the economic downturn highlights the necessity for across-the-board savings, not just retirement. Emergency savings accounts, for example, are seeing an increase in popularity, experts say. Financial advisers play a large role here in helping employees understand their current needs, DeRusso says. “Many people look towards retirement as the end goal, but what financial advisers can do is help people really understand their broader goals,” DeRusso explains. “Helping them understand their risk tolerance and time horizon for when they’re actually going to need to spend money.”

Different Views About Retirement Plans Shaped COVID-19 Responses Globally

The U.S. can learn from other countries about instilling the mindset of preserving retirement savings and creating different pools of assets to be dipped into in case of emergency.

The United States has opened up retirement plans for participant withdrawals during the COVID-19 crisis more so than any other country, according to a report from the Defined Contribution Institutional Investment Association (DCIIA).

In fact, only three other countries in DCIIA’s report allowed for withdrawals. However, these were either set monthly or annual payments. No other country in the report, “Initial Impacts of Coronavirus on Global Defined Contribution Plans,” initiated anything like the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act implemented in the U.S.

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While hardship withdrawals are allowed by many defined contribution (DC) plans, the CARES Act created a new type of distribution, called a coronavirus-related distribution (CRD), which can be taken in amounts up to $100,000, and expanded retirement plan loan limits.

The fact that the U.S. offered more help in the form of retirement plan distributions struck Neil Lloyd, partner and head of US Defined Contribution & Financial Wellness Research at Mercer in Vancouver, Canada, as interesting. Lloyd says he believes different thinking about retirement plans is the reason for the difference in the U.S., more so than any problem with logistics due to plan design. But he also notes that what makes the U.S. different is that this has happened before to some extent. “It’s not like these tactics are brand new. It happens with hurricane or wildfire relief. Other countries haven’t done this to the same degree,” he says.

For example, Lloyd says he found it “quite unusual” that Australia gave access to some retirement funds. According to DCIIA’s report, “Australians rendered unemployed/underemployed may withdraw A$10,000 (USD$5,800) from their superannuation savings plans in 2020 and again in 2021.” Lloyd explains that the superannuation fund in Australia has not typically given people access to money, and it has a big market impact on the fund because it has more illiquid assets in its portfolio.

Lloyd says that, in his experience, a key part of the UK’s mindset about retirement plans is the sanctity of preserving their assets. “That’s been the system’s mindset for almost 30 years,” he says. He adds that the Canadian retirement industry is still mostly based on targeted benefit programs and is less DC plan-focused, so “it has more of a rational retirement-first focus.”

Lew Minsky, president and CEO of DCIIA in West Palm Beach, Florida, says the reason for disparities among the countries in the report can be attributed to both logistics and a different thinking about retirement plans. “Generally, there are design structures in place in most of these countries’ retirement plans that make it harder for withdrawals and loans to be taken, but this is because they are philosophically more focused on preserving retirement plan assets for retirement and not supplemental savings,” he explains.

Minsky says the DC plan system in the U.S. is getting there, but is still in the process of making that transition. “Our system is in the early phase of allowing portability of retirement plan balances,” he says. “Other countries’ systems use a more centralized design or, as in the UK, the pot follows the member. They are further along in preventing potential leakage of retirement assets.”

Lesson to Learn

Still, Lloyd says he thinks the CARES Act was a positive thing. “There was a shortage in people’s financial need that needed to be addressed. Retirement is something we still need to deal with, but it’s not today’s problem,” he says. Lloyd finds that, in general, when he talks with U.S. employers, they are more aware than employers in other countries of the concept of financial wellness and how much employees have competing financial priorities. He cited a prior research report from Mercer that suggested employers should always be aware that, for many people, retirement is not their first priority. “There needs to be a balancing act,” Lloyd says. “If a retirement plan doesn’t allow people to access their money, people may not put money into it.”

The DCIIA report lists Denmark as one of the countries that has not allowed retirement plan withdrawals or loans, but it points out other measures the government took to help employees maintain salaries. That is what Minsky says the CARES Act did. “It didn’t just open up DC plans; it extended unemployment to more people, increased unemployment insurance payments and offered forgivable loans for business owners,” he says. “One of the bits of evidence that that has generally worked is there hasn’t been much take up in people accessing retirement plan distributions and loans.”

Lloyd says the positive message is that DC plans can help people with more than just retirement. “I think now we will look at what have we learned. If there’s [a natural disaster or health crisis] every single year, people are never going to save for retirement,” he says. “There’s a need for people to put money aside to address crises. I feel a discussion about that now will be insensitive, but we will need to start these conversations after this is over.”

Minsky also notes that other countries have done a good job of creating other pools of assets to be tapped into in cases of emergency. He notes that, in the UK, there is active development of emergency savings vehicles adjacent to and not inside of the National Employment Savings Trust (NEST) program. “That is an initiative the U.S. can follow and learn from,” he says. Minsky notes that similar efforts are happening in Canada.

That’s one issue Lloyd says he hopes the retirement industry learns—the importance of having emergency savings accounts. “It can be a totally separate savings opportunity, but it could be some of an employee’s contribution goes to emergency savings until a time when it reverts to the DC plan,” he says. Lloyd notes that some state plans put employees’ money in cash accounts in the first year, which almost creates an emergency savings account because if people have to take a distribution, they won’t have asset losses.

Lloyd concedes that the opening of DC plans for employees’ financial needs during COVID-19 could have been done with better controls, but he notes there was a time crunch. The economic effects of the pandemic happened in a short period of time and Congress had to react quickly. Again, Lloyd says, he hopes a lesson is learned so that, maybe next time, Congress will be prepared with a more refined response.

There should be a balance between providing funds when necessary and having in place guardrails to preserve retirement savings, Minsky says. “The [CRD] repayment provision [of the CARES Act] was smart, but it’s worth looking at short-term savings opportunities going forward so we eliminate the need to tap into retirement savings,” he says.

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