The first two years of retirement bring a modest drop in
spending for the majority of Americans, according to new research from the
Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI).
Still, nearly half of retired households (approximately 46%)
wind up spending modestly more than they did just before retirement, EBRI says.
“That declines over time, and by the sixth year of retirement, just a third
spend more than they did pre-retirement.”
“We also found that households that spent more in the first
two years of retirement were not exclusively high-income households,” explains
Sudipto Banerjee, research associate at EBRI and author of the report. “Rather,
they were distributed across all income levels.”
The research once again highlights the highly personal
nature of retirement income distribution, which many industry practitioners describe as vastly more challenging from a planning
perspective than accumulation.
To get a handle on retirees’ current behavior, EBRI
studied the spending patterns of a fixed group of households for up to six
years after retirement. The underlying data was derived from the Health and
Retirement Study (HRS), which is a survey of a nationally representative sample
of U.S. households with individuals older than 50 and is described by EBRI as
“the most comprehensive survey of older Americans in the nation and covers
topics such as health, assets, income, and labor-force status in detail.”
Additional data came from Consumption and Activities Mail Survey (CAMS), which
was started in 2001 as a supplement to the HRS and contains detailed household
spending information.
EBRI finds the first two years of retirement see median
household spending drop by 5.5% from pre-retirement spending levels, and by
the fourth year, spending drops 12.5%. Importantly, the spending
reduction slowed down after the fourth year.
NEXT: Sources of savings vary
EBRI explains that, in the first two years of retirement,
two in five households spent less than 80% of what they spent annually
pre-retirement, and by the sixth year of retirement a slight majority of
households did so.
A worrying prospect for many, is that, in the first two years of
retirement, nearly three in 10 households did essentially the opposite,
clocking more than 120% of their pre-retirement spending year on year. By the
sixth year of retirement, about 23% of households
still did so.
It makes sense that the spending patterns are not
necessarily tied to income level, given that different wage earners all face
lifestyle changes and expected/unexpected events related to retirement.
However, some factors seem to be far more indicative than income level when it
comes to predicting spending changes heading into and during early retirement,
EBRI says. In particular, the research highlights the fact that the median
household “has a home mortgage payment before retirement but none after
retirement, indicating paying off mortgage could be a factor in the timing of
retirement.”
These findings are from the full report, “Change in
Household Spending After Retirement: Results from a Longitudinal Sample,”
published in the November 2015 EBRI Notes, online at www.ebri.org.
The
business imperative to control health benefit cost growth has taken on a new
urgency with the fast-approaching implementation of the excise, or “Cadillac,”
tax Affordable Care Act’s (ACA’s) provision, Mercer notes.
According
to the National Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Plans, conducted annually
by Mercer (with 2,486 participants in 2015), employer actions to reduce their exposure
to the 40% excise tax, which goes into effect in 2018, helped hold growth in
health benefits cost per employee to just 3.8% in 2015, for a third straight
year of increases below 4%. Total health benefits cost averaged $11,635 per
employee in 2015. This cost includes both employer and employee contributions
for medical, dental and other health coverage, for all covered employees and
dependents.
Small
employers were hit with higher increases than large employers. Cost rose by
5.9% on average among employers with 10 to 499 employees but by just 2.9% among
those with 500 or more.
Employers
predict that in 2016 their health benefits cost per employee will rise by 4.3%
on average. This increase reflects changes they will make to reduce cost; if
they made no changes to their current plans, they estimate that cost would rise
by an average of 6.3%. But about half of all employers indicated that they
would make changes in 2016.
The
survey also found employers are getting more creative with how they support
workforce health—the most desirable route to long-term cost management. About
one-fourth of large employers (24%) encourage employees to track their physical
activity with a “wearable” device, while 30% use mobile apps designed to engage
employees in caring for their health. They are broadening the focus of
workforce health and wellness programs to include other elements of well-being,
offering programs to address sleep disorders (39%, up from 32% last year),
improve resiliency (42%), and provide help in managing finances (69%).
NEXT: More employers implement CDHPs
Helping
to hold down cost growth for large employers was a jump in enrollment in
high-deductible consumer-driven health plans (CDHPs) as they continued to
implement new plans in 2015. Among small employers, use of these plans has
grown more slowly. Where enrollment has nearly doubled among large employers
over the past three years—from 15% to 28% of covered employees—among small
employers it has risen from 17% to just 19%.
Overall,
CDHP enrollment reached 25% in 2015. The largest employers have moved the
fastest to add CDHPs—73% of employers with 20,000 or more employees now offer a
CDHP, and 30% of their covered employees are enrolled.
A
health savings account (HSA)-eligible CDHP costs about 18% less, on average,
than a traditional preferred provider organization (PPO), and it’s typically
the lowest-cost option for employees in terms of their paycheck deduction,
Mercer says. However, when they are offered as an option, even among large
employers that have offered the plan for at least three years, only 29% of
employees, on average, elect to enroll.
“Employers
have learned that the higher deductible can be a real deterrent for employees
without enough savings to comfortably handle a major medical expense,” says
Tracy Watts, Mercer’s national leader for health reform. “When CDHPs were first
introduced, the concept made intuitive sense but we didn’t have the tools we
have now to help employees actually become better health care consumers. I
think we’re finally turning the corner.”
NEXT: More focus on consumerism
Employers
are moving quickly to implement telemedicine services—telephonic or video
access to providers—as a low-cost, convenient alternative to an office visit
for some types of non-acute care, Mercers survey found. Offerings of
telemedicine services jumped from 18% to 30% of all large employers.
The
ability to compare prices for higher-cost services is becoming a reality as
well. More large employers contracted with a specialty vendor to provide their
employees with a “transparency tool”—an online resource to help them compare provider price and quality (among employers with 20,000 or more employees, 24% provided
transparency tools in 2015, up from just 15% last year).
When
employees can comparison shop, employers can give incentives to avoid the most
expensive providers—in turn giving those providers a reason to adjust their
prices. With “reference-based pricing,” for example, employers set a limit on
how much they will cover for a specific service in a specific area, and the
patient is responsible for the cost above that amount. Use of reference-based
pricing rose from 11% to 13% among large employers in 2015.
Private
exchanges are gaining momentum fast: 6% of large employers already use a
private exchange for active employees or will by next year’s open enrollment, a
50% increase in just one year. An additional 27% of large employers are
considering switching to an exchange within five years.
In
2013, 21% of employers with 50 to 499 employees said they were likely to drop
their plans within the next five years; this number fell to 15% in 2014 and to
just 7% this year. Among employers with 500 or more employees, just 5% say they
are likely to drop their plans, essentially unchanged from 4% last year.
NEXT: Avoiding the excise tax will get harder
A
plan’s actuarial value—the percentage of a member’s health care expenses it can
be expected to cover—is not the only factor that can drive up cost above the excise tax threshold. Health plan costs vary
significantly by geographic region, the degree of competition in the provider
market, and workforce demographics, Mercer notes.
Based
on their current premiums, Mercer estimates that 23% of large employers have at
least one plan with costs that will exceed the excise tax threshold in 2018 if
they make no changes between now and then. That’s down from 33% last year,
because employers continued to make changes to slow cost growth. However, due
to the way the excise tax threshold is indexed, the percentage of employers at
risk will rise every year that medical inflation exceeds the general consumer
price index (CPI). By 2022, 45% of employers are estimated to be liable for the
tax unless they make changes.
It
will be harder for some employers to avoid the tax than others. Those with very
rich plans have room to maneuver. But among large employers, only 44% of the
plans expected to reach the excise tax cost threshold in 2018 have an actuarial
value (AV) of 90% or higher, which is the definition of a Platinum plan, the
most expensive plan on the public exchanges. Another 45% have an AV of 80% to 89%
and would be considered Gold-level plans, like a typical employer-sponsored
plan today. But more than one in 10 would be considered just Silver-level
plans, or even Bronze-level—the lowest-value plan on the exchange.
“For
employers that want to maintain current benefit levels for their employees,
there are a range of strategies to explore that can help control cost over the long term,” says Watts. “But for
employers with high-cost plans that aren’t what most would consider ’Cadillac’,
that 2018 deadline is a tough challenge.”
The full report on
the Mercer survey, including a separate appendix of tables of responses broken
out by employer size, region and industry, will be published in April 2016. For
more information, visit www.mercer.com/ushealthplansurvey.